USBR 24-Month Study Projections
Reclamation's July 2026 published projections for Lake Mead and Lake Powell — transcribed, dated, and linked to the source PDFs.
- Reclamation's July 2026 Most Probable 24-Month Study projects Lake Mead at 1,037.31 feet and Lake Powell at 3,507.68 feet on December 31, 2026.
- That Lake Mead projection is 3.27 feet below the July 2022 record low of 1,040.58 feet — the study projects new record-low territory by the end of 2026.
- In the Probable Minimum scenario, Lake Powell falls below its 3,490-foot minimum power pool in early 2027 and reaches 3,429.58 feet at end-March 2028, and Lake Mead ends the study window at 990.65 feet in June 2028.
- Actual levels as of : Lake Mead 1,041.38 ft, Lake Powell 3,523.15 ft.
What these numbers are
The 24-Month Study is the Bureau of Reclamation's monthly operational projection for the Colorado River system: one model run under Most Probable inflow, and (in most months) companion runs under Probable Minimum and Probable Maximum inflow. Reservoir Bench does not model or predict anything — this page transcribes Reclamation's published end-of-month elevations, names the study month, and links the source PDFs. No Probable Maximum study was published for July 2026.
Sources: July 2026 Most Probable study (PDF) · Probable Minimum study (PDF), both released July 15, 2026.
Lake Mead projected end-of-month elevation (ft)
| Date | Most Probable | Probable Minimum | Most Probable vs today (1,041.38 ft) |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 1,037.31 | 1,037.10 | -4.07 ft |
| December 31, 2027 | 1,015.74 | 1,010.91 | -25.64 ft |
| June 30, 2028 | 1,009.69 | 990.65 | -31.69 ft |
Lake Mead context: the record low is 1,040.58 ft (July 28, 2022); minimum power pool is 950 ft and dead pool is 895 ft — see minimum power pool and dead pool. Live daily readings: Lake Mead water level.
Lake Powell projected end-of-month elevation (ft)
| Date | Most Probable | Probable Minimum | Most Probable vs today (3,523.15 ft) |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3,507.68 | 3,503.65 | -15.47 ft |
| December 31, 2027 | 3,510.71 | 3,449.33 | -12.44 ft |
| June 30, 2028 | 3,533.42 | 3,466.84 | +10.27 ft |
Lake Powell context: minimum power pool is 3,490 ft, dead pool 3,370 ft. The lowest projected end-of-month elevation is 3,491.75 ft (April 30, 2027) in the Most Probable run and 3,429.58 ft (March 31, 2028) in the Probable Minimum run. Live daily readings: Lake Powell water level.
Operational notes from the study
- Lake Powell's water year 2026 release was reduced to 6.0 million acre-feet under Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD.
- The 2026 Drought Response Operations Plan releases approximately 660,000 acre-feet to 1.00 million acre-feet of additional Flaming Gorge water to Lake Powell by April 2027; the study reflects a 1.00 maf release.
- For calendar year 2026, a Shortage Condition under Section 2.D.1.a of the 2007 Interim Guidelines plus DCP contributions govern Lake Mead operations.
Projections policy: these are Reclamation's published figures, not this site's. Projections change every month; the study month is stated on every number above, and this page is refreshed when a new study is transcribed. The August study sets the following year's operating conditions. Actual elevations on this site come from the daily gauge record and are updated daily regardless.